HSBC Forecasts.
Latest News on Pound Sterling Live.
Pound-to-Rand Falls Sharply after Key Court Ruling Ahead of ANC Conference.
December 15, 2017.
Canadian Dollar Shines after “Captain Hawk” Reignites Hopes of Another Interest …
December 15, 2017.
Australian Dollar Catches New Bid but Monday’s Finance Update Will Test Appetite.
December 15, 2017.
British Pound: Sterling Slumps Against Euro and Dollar after Suggestions Trade T…
December 15, 2017.
Pound Headed to 1.18 Vs Euro as Bank of England Picks Up the Pace say Capital Ec…
December 15, 2017.
Bank / Institutional Forecasts.
All Content © Pound Sterling Live 2013-2017. The news and information contained on this site is by no means investment advice. We intend to merely bring together and collate the latest views and news pertaining to the currency markets - subsequent decision making is done so independently of this website. All quoted exchange rates are indicative. We cannot guarantee 100% accuracy owing to the highly volatile and liquid nature of this market.
US Dollar Forecast to Fall on Changing Narrative: HSBC's Bloom.
The narrative on the dollar is turning again and the upcoming Federal rate hike will signal the last phase of the long-term USD rally.
Analysts at HSBC have told clients that the next theme in global foreign exchange will be one that sees the US dollar decline.
The view runs counter to analyst consensus from what we can see; the tenor of most research and comment that lands on our desk prices in a continuation of the cyclical US dollar bull-run for much of the year ahead.
The well-publicised expression of this theme is the decline in the euro / dollar to a 1:1 exchange rate at some stage in 2016.
But, the whole point of having an in-house research team is to make sure you beat the markets; something David Bloom, Strategist at HSBC Bank, and his team will do if correct.
The evolution of the USD bull-Run.
Just where are we in the US dollar's life cycle?
Above, US dollar basket, courtesy of Bloomberg.
In a fresh research note HSBC show that the consensus for USD bullishness was clear and consensual:
- When the EUR hit 1.05 in April the consensus was that the EUR would plunge further as the Fed tightens and Greece leaves the Eurozone. Go short EUR. Wrong.
- Then, as Greek concerns faded, the consensus USD bull view morphed. The ECB ramped up its dovish rhetoric and the story was now that the Fed would hike while the ECB would cut rates and do more QE.
"Our view was and is different. The Fed called the beginning of the USD bull-run, but that was in May 2013 with Bernanke’s tapering talk. By April this year the EUR had already fallen from above 1.40 to 1.05. So this was not the beginning of the bull-run, but time to take pause and reconsider," says Bloom.
HSBC Forecasting a Falling US Dollar in 2016.
Now Bloom and his team believe the narrative is turning again and the upcoming Fed rate hike will signal the last phase of the USD rally. The USD may make some gains against some EM currencies, "but we have it falling against the EUR and the JPY in 2016."
As the Fed moves closer to raising rates HSBC believe markets will start obsessing over the rate of interest rate rises and their final level at the end of the cycle.
At present this has been given little consideration thanks to the obsession with the timing of the first hike.
"The timing debate is hawkish whilst the levels debate is dovish," points out Bloom.
Now that the FX market has largely priced in a Fed rate hike for December, the narrative is swiftly transitioning to the "peak rate" debate.
That transition will, in HSBC's view, be complete on 16 December.
It is warned that shorting the US dollar now could be uncomfortable as there could be some near-term anxiety for risk assets and a slightly stronger USD in the immediate aftermath of the first Fed rate rise for 11 years.
"The market has, after all, had the best part of three years to prepare for a rate rise. We believe the market would immediately ask the "peak rate" question, which puts us back in a dovish world. This should signal a new era – one that is not singularly USD bullish," says Bloom.
In the anticipation of a Fed tightening we have had a USD bull-run.
It is argued that if rates move a little higher than expected then the USD will go up a little. "However, if at any time next year the market thinks the Fed may need to loosen in 2017, then the USD will plummet," says Bloom, "the risk/reward in 2016 is for a weaker USD. Fed rate hikes are in the price," says Bloom.
FOMC members are not tiring of stressing that the key interest rate will be raised in this cycle at a much slower rate than in earlier cycles.
Consequently, only two further rate hikes are being priced in by the market for 2016.
Inflation Could Aid the Dollar in 2016.
The figures due next week on the private consumer spending deflator (PCE), the Fed’s preferred yardstick for inflation, should also give an indication of how quickly the next rate hike could follow after lift-off in December.
"One thing is clear: the stronger the inflation pressure, the faster the Fed has to increase interest rates," says Thu Lan Nguyen at Commerzbank.
Therefore, if prices rise at a sharper rate than expected, this should give considerable impetus to inflation expectations for the coming year and thus also to the US dollar Nguyen believes.
Latest News on Pound Sterling Live.
Pound-to-Rand Falls Sharply after Key Court Ruling Ahead of ANC Conference.
December 15, 2017.
Canadian Dollar Shines after “Captain Hawk” Reignites Hopes of Another Interest …
December 15, 2017.
Australian Dollar Catches New Bid but Monday’s Finance Update Will Test Appetite.
December 15, 2017.
British Pound: Sterling Slumps Against Euro and Dollar after Suggestions Trade T…
December 15, 2017.
Pound Headed to 1.18 Vs Euro as Bank of England Picks Up the Pace say Capital Ec…
December 15, 2017.
US Dollar Falls After Federal Reserve Raises Interest Rates - Here’s Why.
13 December, 2017 |
Treasury yields and the Dollar were both lower overnight after the Fed left markets underwhelmed.
Pound-to-Dollar Eyeing 1.40 after US Election Upset Places Trump Tax-bill Under Renewed Th…
13 December, 2017 |
Democrat victory in Alabama erodes Republican majority at a time when not all senators are on-board with the tax-plan. Strategists eye 1.40 for Pound-to-Dollar in coming months.
Technical Analysis: Pound-to-Dollar Sat On Strong Zone of Support and Biased to Rebound.
12 December, 2017 |
The Pound-to-Dollar may have lost ground in December but looking at the bigger picture reveals the potential for more upside; and it's not just us, other analysts agree.
US Dollar Cedes Ground to G10 Rivals as Fed Looms, Tax Reforms and "Dot-plot" in…
12 December, 2017 |
With Washington moving rapidly toward tax reform, all eyes are on the interest rate and inflation forecasts in the Federal Reserve's "dot-plot" this week.
Latest Pound / US Dollar Exchange Rates.
* Your Bank's Retail Rate.
* Bank rates according to latest IMTI data.
** RationalFX dealing desk quotation.
Institutional Exchange Rate Forecasts 2017 - 2018.
Morgan Stanley: Updated FX Forecasts for 2017/18.
UBS: FX Forecasts For 2018.
Barclays: FX Forecasts for 2018.
Crédit Agricole: Updated FX Forecasts 2017-2018.
Economics Coverage.
Here is What Has Happened to UK Productivity, Says ONS Economist.
UK Industrial Activity Surges in Year to November - Lead by Manufacturing.
Dour Day for Sterling Exacerbated by Services PMI Miss.
Construction Industry Surges Back to Life in November as Residential Sector Gathers Momentum.
Banks to Weather Brexit Storm but Will Higher Capital Requirements Hamper Interest Rate Rises?
Best Australian Dollar Rate: 1 GBP = 1.7423 Today.
Best Canadian Dollar Rate Today: 1 GBP = 1.7161.
Best US Dollar Rate Today: 1 GBP = 1.3322.
Best Euro Rate Today: 1 GBP = 1.1337.
All Content © Pound Sterling Live 2013-2017. The news and information contained on this site is by no means investment advice. We intend to merely bring together and collate the latest views and news pertaining to the currency markets - subsequent decision making is done so independently of this website. All quoted exchange rates are indicative. We cannot guarantee 100% accuracy owing to the highly volatile and liquid nature of this market.
Foreign Exchange.
A Market Leader.
HSBC is one of the leading global Foreign Exchange (FX) market makers. Whether your execution needs are driven by a transactional, hedging or investment strategy, you can leverage our global footprint, local knowledge and deep expertise to gain unique insights and manage your exposure in a manner aligned with your objectives.
Understanding what you value.
We have a host of sound solutions, providing liquidity from the purely transactional to the highly customised. We provide risk management and tailored solutions such as Transactional FX, Algorithmic Execution, FX indices, FX Overlay and FX Prime Services that allow clients to select and create individual propositions to suit their needs. Our array of strategic support is underpinned by market intelligence and research with global reach. As such, we intend to serve not only on price but also as a provider of choice in analysing FX risk, providing innovative research and insights.
Our Global Reach.
Operating across all time zones, HSBC provides 24-hour coverage from our three main centres in London, New York and Hong Kong. We offer a deep and consistent pool of liquidity across FX instruments – through electronic, both bilateral and third party, and voice channels for FX cash and derivative solutions including spot, forward, NDF, swaps, vanilla and exotic options. Our experienced teams of derivatives specialists can help structure bespoke solutions for your specific requirements.
Our extensive experience in emerging markets reflects our commitment to the long-term development of domestic on-shore/off-shore markets and business in each region. HSBC maintains presence and knowledge in local economies combined with global solutions.
The depth of our liquidity, the strength of our balance sheet and our commitment to investment in technology enables us to deliver value across pricing, execution, post-trade services and client service.
HSBC Algos.
HSBC Currency Risk Management.
HSBC Transactional FX.
HSBC Evolve.
Related insights.
China in the new world order.
Contact us.
To discuss service offerings from Global Banking and Markets, kindly speak to your relationship manager.
Quick links.
HSBC websites.
Terms and Conditions Privacy policy Cookie Policy © HSBC Bank 2017.
You are leaving the HSBC Global Banking and Markets website.
Please be aware that the external site policies will differ from our website terms and conditions and privacy policy. The next site will open in a new browser window or tab.
Trade Forecast Reports.
Trade Forecast Reports.
Explore the future of world trade and identify key opportunities across markets and sectors with HSBC Global Connections Trade Forecast reports.
Get in touch.
Is your business going global? 8000 experts in 63 markets to support you.
News from around the world.
The changing face of Consumer Demand – Is your business ready?
Changing demographics and consumer behaviours will present new opportunities to agile businesses in the coming decades whilst posing threats to some established marketing strategies, according to HSBC’s Future of Consumer Demand report.
The rise of the micro-multinationals.
Five traits of a smart company.
Why Belt and Road is more than the sum of its parts.
Speaking at the World Trade Symposium in London, Natalie Blyth, HSBC’s Global Head of Trade and Receivables Finance, explains how China’s Belt and Road Initiative will be the catalyst for greater economic growth and international cooperation.
Culture Snapshot: The Real North America.
A brief introduction to business culture in Canada, US and Mexico.
Contact us.
Industries.
Strategies.
Special features.
Tools & data.
© HSBC Bank plc 2012.
You are leaving the HSBC Global Connections domain.
Please be aware that external site policies will differ from our website terms and conditions and privacy policy. The next site will open in a new browser window or tab.
Комментарии
Отправить комментарий