Ironfx forex factory

These products may not be suitable for everyone and you should ensure that you understand the risks involved.
High Risk Trading Warning: Our services include products that are traded on margin and carry a risk of losing all your initial deposit. Before deciding on trading on margin products you should consider your investment objectives, risk tolerance and your level of experience on these products. Trading with high leverage level can either be against you or for you. Margin products may not be suitable for everyone and you should ensure that you understand the risks involved. You should be aware of all the risks associated in regards to products that are traded on margin and seek independent financial advice, if necessary. Please read IronFXвЂ™s Risk Disclosure statement. This website is owned and operated by IronFX Group.
Licenses and Authorizations.
IronFX Global Limited is authorized and regulated by CySEC (Licence no. 125/10)
Group Licenses and Authorizations.
GVS (AU) Pty Ltd is authorized and regulated by ASIC (AFSL no. 417482) 8Safe UK Limited is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA no. 585561)
IronFX does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as USA, Iran, Cuba, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.

Ironfx forex factory

Daily Commentary • US employment data cement a March hike The US economy added 235k jobs in February data showed on Friday, more than the consensus for 190k, and a number consistent with further tightening in the labor market. Meanwhile, January’s figure was revised up to 238k from 227k. The unemployment rate ticked down, while the labor force participation rate ticked up, indicating both an increase in the number of people available to work and a decrease in the number of unemployed people. However, wages disappointed again, with average hourly earnings rising +0.2% mom, the same pace as in January and below the forecast of +0.3% mom. Nonetheless, in yearly terms earnings accelerated to +2.8% yoy from +2.6% yoy. Even though wage growth missed its forecast, the print is not soft enough to derail the Fed’s plans for a rate hike this week, in our view. This is evident by the fact that the probability for a March hike remained almost unchanged in the aftermath of the jobs data, at roughly 90% according to the Fed funds futures. The reaction in the dollar was negative on the news, perhaps as investors found an opportunity to lock in some profits on their long USD positions ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. The focus now turns to that policy meeting. Considering that a hike is almost fully priced in, investors will look for clues with regards to the future rate path, something that may determine the dollar’s forthcoming direction (see below).
• Euro jumps on reports the ECB could raise rates before end of QE The common currency jumped during the European afternoon Friday, following a Bloomberg report that at the latest ECB meeting, policymakers debated whether interest rates could rise before the QE program actually ends. Later, this was confirmed by a Reuters article, which also indicated that the discussion had taken place, but added that it was brief and did not receive a lot of support. Even though the question of whether rates can be raised while still engaged in QE operations may be largely theoretical, it shows that policymakers may have started considering the ways they can end their ultra-loose policy program. At the press conference following last week’s ECB meeting, President Draghi said that the Governing Council previously discussed dropping out the word “lower” from its guidance that interest rates will remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time. Therefore, these media reports are in line with our view that the next signal for a gradual end of QE will be the removal of “lower” from the ECB’s guidance, as we noted in our comment on Friday. We think that these policy signals could keep the euro supported over the next few days, at least in the absence of incoming French polls showing that Le Pen is gaining back ground on her opponents, and also assuming that the Dutch Eurosceptic candidate Wilders does not win Wednesday’s election.
• EUR/USD surged on Friday due to the combination of the soft US wages and the ECB reports, breaking above the 1.0630 (S2) key barrier, which acted as the upper bound of the sideways range that had been containing the price action since the 17th of February. This has turned the short-term outlook to positive, in our view. Now, the rate looks ready to challenge the 1.0710 (R1) resistance barrier, where a clear break is possible to extent the rally towards the 1.0755 (R2) area. Switching to the daily chart, although the pair is still trading below the downtrend line taken from the peak of the 3rd of May 2016, we prefer to switch to flat for now. The recent rally confirmed a bottom near 1.0500, while it made it clear that an “inverted head and shoulders” may be in the works. A clear close above the crossroad of the aforementioned downtrend line and the 1.0800 (R3) key resistance is possible to signal the completion of the pattern and bring a medium-term trend reversal.
• WTI drops on rising rig count Oil prices dropped again on Friday, following the release of the Baker Hughes rig count, which showed that the number of active US oil rigs continued to increase, reaching a level last seen in October 2015. WTI tumbled after it hit resistance at 50.50 (R3), fell below the support line of 49.00 (R1), and stopped at 48.40 (S1). Last week’s slide is in line with our long-held view that following the OPEC consensus, higher oil prices would invite US shale producers back into the market, thereby keeping a lid on oil price gains. We expect the precious liquid to remain under pressure at least in the short run, weighed on by signs that US supply is increasing, as well as the possibility that OPEC does not follow up with another deal to limit supply when the cartel meets again in May. The short-term outlook appears negative from a technical standpoint as well and as such, we would expect a clear dip below 48.40 (S1) to open the way for our next support of 47.50 (S2). Nevertheless, we would stay careful that a corrective bounce may be on the cards before the bears take the reins again, given that the latest slide looks somewhat overextended. With regards to the bigger picture, although the price is still trading above the upside support line taken from the low of the 5th of April, all the aforementioned fundamental factors make us hesitant to trust WTI’s longer-term path. We believe that the likelihood of last week’s correction leading to a reversal is not something to overlook.
• Today’s highlights: During the European day, the economic calendar is empty, with no major indicators due to be released.
• The only event that could attract some attention is in the UK, where lawmakers of the House of Commons will debate the Brexit bill amendment proposed by the House of Lords. Although unlikely, any signs that the Commons could support the amendment as well may prove positive for sterling. Besides UK MPs, we have three more speakers scheduled for today: ECB President Mario Draghi, Vice President Vitor Constancio, and Executive Board member Peter Praet.
• As for the rest of the week, on Tuesday, during the Asian morning, we get China’s retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment data, for the months of January and February. From Sweden, we get CPI data for February.
• On Wednesday, the highlight will be the FOMC rate decision. The Committee is widely expected to hike borrowing costs, so we don’t expect a major market reaction in case the Fed simply acts as expected. Investors are likely to quickly turn their attention to the updated “dot plot” for fresh signals on the rate path, as well as Chair Yellen’s press conference. In terms of political events, market participants will keep an eye on the Dutch elections. This is mainly because one of the most popular candidates is Geert Wilders, an outspoken Eurosceptic who wants to hold a “Brexit” style referendum for leaving the EU. As for the economic data, we get US CPI and retail sales figures for February, as well as the UK’s employment report for January.
• On Thursday, we have an extremely busy day, with 4 central bank meetings on the agenda: the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, the Norges Bank and the Bank of England. All of these Banks are expected to remain on hold.
• On Friday, we have no major events or indicators on the economic agenda.
• Support: 1.0675 (S1), 1.0630 (S2), 1.0570 (S3)
• Resistance: 1.0710 (R1), 1.0755 (R2), 1.0800 (R3)
• Support: 48.40 (S1), 47.50 (S2), 45.45 (S3)
• Resistance: 49.00 (R1), 49.70 (R2), 50.50 (R3)
Daily Commentary • Will the US jobs report seal the deal for a March hike? Today, the main event will be the release of the US employment report for February. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to have risen by 190k, less than the 227k in January, but still a solid number that is consistent with further tightening in the labor market. We see the risks surrounding the NFP forecast as skewed to the upside, considering that the ADP report for February showed the private sector added 297k jobs, far more than the anticipated 190k and that initial jobless claims were unusually low throughout the month. The unemployment rate is expected to have ticked down, while average hourly earnings are forecast to have accelerated on both a monthly and a yearly basis. This would be a sign that the softness in January’s earnings was just an outlier, and coming on top of a robust NFP number, it may seal the deal for a March rate hike. The probability for a hike next week currently rests at 90% according to the Fed funds futures. In case the employment data are as strong as anticipated, or even better, that percentage could surge even further and thereby bring the dollar under renewed buying interest.
• ECB: More optimistic, but still too early to debate tapering The ECB kept its stimulus program unchanged yesterday, as was widely anticipated. In the accompanying statement, the Bank maintained its dovish forward guidance, reiterating that interest rates will remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time, and that the Bank stands ready to increase its QE program in terms of size and/or duration if the outlook becomes less favorable.
• The press conference following the decision had a more hawkish tilt though. Although President Draghi initially reminded investors that there is still no convincing upward trend in underlying inflation, he continued by pointing out that a dovish sentence from his introductory statement had been removed. The sentence said: “If warranted, to achieve its objective the Governing Council will act by using all the instruments available within its mandate”. Draghi indicated this was removed to signal there is no longer that sense of urgency in taking further actions. Perhaps in an even more optimistic twist, the President said that the TLTRO loans are about to expire, and that there has been absolutely no discussion about having another round. He further indicated that the Council previously discussed dropping out the word “lower” from its guidance on interest rates. This may be one of the Bank’s next moves.
• In our view, these relatively hawkish comments from Draghi suggest that the days of aggressive ECB easing may be behind us. As a result, EUR/USD surged breaking above the 1.0570 (S1) barrier to hit resistance slightly below the 1.0630 (R1) hurdle, which is the upper bound of the sideways range the pair has been trading since the 17th of February. We believe that the euro could remain supported in the next few days, at least in the absence of incoming French polls showing that Le Pen is gaining ground on her rivals. However, we would avoid EUR/USD, considering that today’s US jobs data could prove the trigger for a retreat. Investors may settle near the 1.0630 (R1) hurdle waiting for the report, and could push it lower in case of strong numbers, targeting once again the 1.0570 (S1) barrier as a support. A clear dip below that level is possible to open the way for the 1.0525 (S2) level. Instead, EUR/GBP may be a better proxy for potential near-term euro gains, given that the House of Commons could overturn the “soft Brexit” amendment that the House of Lords passed regarding a “meaningful vote” on the final Brexit deal.
• As for the rest of today’s highlights: During the European day, we get Norway’s CPI data for February. The headline rate is forecast to have remained unchanged, while the core rate is expected to have ticked down. Although something like that could bring NOK under renewed selling interest, we doubt that it will have a material impact on the Norges Bank’s neutral stance on policy.
• From the UK, we get industrial production data for January, and from Germany, we get the trade balance for January.
• We also get Canada’s employment data for February. The consensus is for the unemployment rate to have held steady and for the net change in employment to have remained in positive territory, albeit marginally. We see the risks surrounding the unemployment rate forecast as skewed to the downside, and we see the case for the overall report to be stronger than expected. We base our expectations on the nation’s Markit manufacturing PMI for the month, which showed the strongest increase in employment for 27 months. In case of a better than anticipated report, the Loonie could reverse some of its recent losses. Considering that the US and Canadian data are released at the same time, even in case the Canadian data notably beat expectations and USD/CAD declines, we would expect any such reaction to remain short-lived. The pair could pullback and challenge the 1.3460 (S1) support level, but we still see a short-term uptrend on the 4-hour chart. As such we expect such a retreat to encourage the bulls to initiate new positions and if they prove strong enough to overcome the 1.3530 (R1) level, they may target the key obstacle of 1.3600 (R2). Our view of further near term advances in this pair is also supported by the combination of a hawkish Fed, a dovish BoC, and the latest slide in oil prices. As for the bigger picture though, we prefer to wait for a clear close above 1.3600 (R2), a zone which was proven a strong resistance back in November and December, before we get confident on the resumption of the prevailing longer-term uptrend.
• Support: 1.0570 (S1), 1.0520 (S2), 1.0500 (S3)
• Resistance: 1.0630 (R1), 1.0675 (R2), 1.0715 (R3)
• Support: 1.3460 (S1), 1.3425 (S2), 1.3380 (S3)
• Resistance: 1.3530 (R1), 1.3600 (R2), 1.3660 (R3)
Daily Commentary • ECB set to stand pat; Draghi likely to repeat previous mantra Today, the highlight will be the ECB policy decision, followed by a press conference from President Draghi. The forecast is for the Governing Council to take no action. The Bank was surprisingly dovish at the latest meeting, in our view. Although the bloc’s headline inflation rate for December surged to a level last seen in 2013, President Draghi downplayed the importance of that improvement. He pointed out that he sees no convincing upward trend in underlying inflation, and that the latest progress in the headline CPI is mainly due to energy-related effects. He implied that until there is material progress in the core CPI, the Bank is likely to keep its policy stance unchanged. Considering that February’s preliminary CPI data showed more of the same, i. e. a rising headline rate but a flat core rate, we doubt that the Governing Council will shift away from its dovish bias today, despite the headline rate hitting 2%. As such, we think that this meeting may be a repetition of the previous one. Like last time, Draghi may try to downplay the recent progress in forward-looking indicators such as the PMIs, by pointing out once again that underlying inflationary pressures have not begun to pick up yet. We think that such dovish comments could prove negative for the euro, but considering that something like that may already be more or less anticipated by investors, any such reaction may be modest.
• ADP report crushes forecasts, enhances speculation for a strong NFP The US private sector added 298k jobs in February according to the ADP employment report for the month, far more than the anticipated 190k. Coming on top of unusually low initial jobless claims for the month, this remarkable ADP print suggests that the NFP print for February, due out tomorrow, is likely to beat its forecast of 190k as well. The US dollar came under renewed buying interest on the news, as the increased possibility for a strong NFP makes a March rate hike appear almost a done deal. The probability for such action is currently 90% according to the Fed funds futures and a robust employment report tomorrow could push it even higher.
• EUR/USD continued trading lower yesterday, fueled by the strong ADP report. The pair remains within the sideways range between 1.0500 (S1) and 1.0630 (R2) and as such, we still consider the short-term path to be sideways. Nevertheless, a dovish ECB today could push the pair towards 1.0500 (S1), the lower bound of that range, where we expect investors to settle and wait for the US jobs data. A strong report tomorrow could prove the catalyst for a break below that key obstacle, something that could help the bears remain in the driver’s seat heading into next week’s FOMC policy gathering.
• WTI prices collapse on surprisingly large US inventory build WTI prices collapsed yesterday, following a much larger than expected inventory build in US oil supplies. The EIA indicated that inventories rose by 8.2 million barrels last week, far higher than the consensus for roughly 2 million barrels. WTI plunged and broke below the 51.50 (R2) key support (now turned into resistance) to stop near 50.40 (S1) before rebounding somewhat. The 51.50 (R2) zone acted as the lower bound of a sideways range that had been in place since the beginning of December. Therefore, its break opens the door for more downside extensions. We believe that oil prices could remain on the back foot for a while following this sudden shift in market sentiment, especially if subsequent reports continue to show an abundance of supply. It is possible that the bears will take the reins again below the 51.50 (R2) level and drive the battle south for another test near 50.40 (S1). A dip below that support could trigger extensions towards our next hurdle of 49.35 (S2). Another factor that may keep WTI prices under pressure is the fact that US shale producers have begun to return to the market. The Baker Hughes oil rig count has been rising steadily in recent months, and has accelerated following the OPEC consensus in late 2016, suggesting that US supply is likely to remain robust. Although yesterday’s tumble only looks as the beginning of a corrective move in the larger uptrend, all the aforementioned factors make us hesitant to trust WTI’s longer-term path. We believe that the likelihood of that correction leading to a reversal is not something to overlook.
• As for the rest of today’s highlights: During the European day, we have a very light data calendar, with no major indicators due to be released.
• From the US, we get initial jobless claims for the week ended March the 3rd. The forecast is for the figure to have risen after falling to its lowest level since 1973, though that would leave the 4-week moving average more or less unchanged.
• Besides ECB President Draghi, we have one more speaker scheduled for today: UK Brexit Minister David Davis will address the House of Commons. Following the recent amendment to the Brexit bill passed in the House of Lords, which the government vowed to overturn in the House of Commons, his comments are likely to be closely followed.
• Support: 1.0500 (S1), 1.0450 (S2), 1.0390 (S3)
• Resistance: 1.0570 (R1), 1.0630 (R2), 1.0675 (R3)
• Support: 50.40 (S1), 49.35 (S2), 48.40 (S3)
• Resistance: 51.10 (R1), 51.50 (R2), 51.85 (R3)
Daily Commentary • UK PM May suffers defeat in House of Lords; Spring Budget in focus Yesterday, the UK House of Lords dealt a blow to Theresa May’s Brexit plans. The Lords voted for an amendment to the Brexit bill that will guarantee Parliament a “meaningful vote” on the final exit deal May negotiates with Brussels. This amendment essentially gives lawmakers a veto over the final deal, and allows them the option to send the government back to the negotiating table in case they are not satisfied with the deal it agrees with its EU counterparts. May had already pledged to give Parliament a vote on the final deal, but it would only be a “take it or leave it” vote, implying that in case lawmakers said no, the UK would walk away without a deal.
• Even though this is a “soft Brexit” signal, as it would restrict May’s ability to actually follow through with her “hard Brexit” plans, GBP was little changed on the news. We believe that this is mainly due to the fact that this amendment must also be approved by the House of Commons. The government has already confirmed that it will fight these changes in the lower house and seek to overturn them. We think that there is a high possibility of that happening given that the Commons have already shown they do not intend to interfere with the government’s plans, by voting for the bill the first time without any material amendments.
• Focus now turns to Chancellor Hammond, who will deliver his Spring Budget to Parliament today. Following his comments on Sunday that it is sensible to maintain fiscal discipline in order to ensure the UK can weather economic surprises, we expect a less expansionary budget than previously. We believe that signs of some fiscal tightening could bring the pound under renewed selling interest, bearing in mind that a reduction in government spending could weigh on the nation’s GDP.
• GBP/JPY traded lower yesterday and during the Asian morning today, it managed to touch its toe below the support (now turned into resistance) barrier of 138.80 (R1). Given that the rate is trading below the downtrend line taken from the peak of the 15th of December and also below the prior upside support line drawn from the low of the 16th of January, we believe that the near-term outlook remains negative. Therefore, we would expect the dip below 138.80 (R1) to carry extensions towards our next support hurdle of 137.90 (S1). Switching to the daily chart, we believe that the broader outlook is cautiously bearish as well. However, a clear close below 137.00 (S2) is needed to signal that the bigger downtrend is back in force.
• As for the rest of today’s highlights: During the European day, we have a very light data calendar, with no major indicators due to be released.
• In the US, the ADP employment report for February is due out. The private sector is expected to have added 190k jobs, less than the robust 246k in January, but still a solid number that could raise speculation for the NFP figure to meet its forecast of 190k as well and thereby, support the dollar. EUR/USD moved somewhat lower yesterday, falling just below the support (now turned into resistance) level of 1.0570 (R1). A strong ADP report could add some more fuel to the pair’s decline and is possible to pave the way for another test near the psychological zone of 1.0500 (S1). Looking ahead, we think that following the new administration’s freeze on public sector hiring in late January, we are likely to see the ADP print coming in closer to the NFP number, considering that the NFP figure will now include fewer public employees, which are not measured in the ADP report. We also get the nation’s final labor cost index for Q4.
• From Canada, we get housing starts for February and building permits for January. Housing starts are expected to have rebounded, but building permits are expected to have slowed somewhat. Given the mixed expectations, the reaction in CAD could remain relatively limited.
• Besides UK Chancellor Hammond, we do not have any other speakers scheduled for today.
• Support: 137.90 (S1), 137.00 (S2), 136.50 (S3)
• Resistance: 138.80 (R1), 139.70 (R2), 140.70 (R3)
• Support: 1.0500 (S1), 1.0450 (S2), 1.0390 (S3)
• Resistance: 1.0570 (R1), 1.0630 (R2), 1.0500 (R3)
Daily Commentary • RBA remains on hold; maintains its neutral bias Overnight, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept its borrowing costs unchanged and maintained its neutral bias with regards to policy. The meeting statement was more or less a repetition of the previous one, offering little fresh information to investors. The Bank reiterated that the domestic economy remains robust, and for the umpteenth time it noted that it prefers a weaker currency, as an appreciating Aussie could complicate economic adjustments. Perhaps the most noteworthy point was that the officials are still worried about high housing prices posing a risk to financial stability. This suggests that the bar for any further easing remains high, reinforcing our view that the Bank is likely to stay on hold for a while. Perhaps due to the lack of fresh forward guidance from the RBA, the reaction in the Aussie was relatively limited on the decision, though the currency moved a bit higher against its major counterparts in the following minutes.
• Looking ahead, the outlook for the Aussie appears cautiously positive in our view, at least against most of its major counterparts. The RBA has shown little appetite for further easing, and has maintained a neutral stance in all its latest communications. At the same time, Governor Lowe recently indicated that it’s hard to say that the Australian dollar is overvalued, implying that the RBA may be tolerant of some further gains in the currency. What’s more, iron ore prices have surged in recent months, something likely to continue to support Australia’s commodity-exporting economy. However, we prefer to avoid the USD as a counterpart to exploit any future AUD gains, considering the hawkish signals from FOMC policymakers regarding a March rate hike. Instead, EUR/AUD appears a much better play, having in mind that Eurozone’s political uncertainties have begun to escalate (see below).
• EUR/AUD slid yesterday after it hit resistance near the psychological round figure of 1.4000 (R2) and the lower bound of the falling wedge that had been containing the price action from December 2015 until February 2017. That move supports our view that the broader path remains negative and that the recovery started on the 22nd of February was just a corrective phase. We expect the bears to continue pushing the rate lower in the foreseeable future and perhaps challenge the 1.3840 (S1) level soon. A clear break below that area is possible to see scope for extensions towards our next support of 1.3725 (S2).
• European political risks come back into the spotlight European political risks emanating from the French Presidential election came back under the market’s microscope yesterday, as the Republican Party formally announced that its candidate will be Francois Fillon. Prior to this, there was some chatter about Fillon dropping out of the race and being replaced by Alain Juppe, since Fillon’s chances to win were seen as diminishing following the recent allegations over payments to his family members for parliamentary work.
• Juppe announced yesterday that he will not challenge Fillon, which implies that Republicans may not even make it to the second round as Fillon is currently third in most polls, behind Macron and Le Pen. Therefore, this may have been interpreted as increasing the odds for Le Pen to win the presidency, something that pushed the euro somewhat lower. EUR/USD edged south after it hit resistance near the 1.0630 (R1) obstacle, which is the upper bound of the sideways range that has been containing the price action since the 17th of February. Nevertheless, the slide was stopped by the 1.0570 (S1) support level. We still expect the common currency to remain on the back foot in coming weeks, at least ahead of the upcoming Dutch and French elections, with the former vote due to take place next week. A decisive dip below 1.0570 (S1) is possible to open the way for another test near the psychological territory of 1.0500 (S2), which also happens to be the lower bound of the aforementioned range. Besides EUR/USD, our other favorite proxy for any potential near-term EUR weakness is EUR/JPY, due to the possibility of the yen attracting some safe haven flows amid this political uncertainty in the EU.
• Today’s highlights: During the European day, Germany’s factory orders for January are due out, though no forecast is presently available. We also get Eurozone’s final GDP for Q4. The forecast is for the final figure to confirm the preliminary estimate and as such, the reaction in EUR may remain limited.
• From the US, we get the trade balance for January. Expectations are for the nation’s trade deficit to have widened, something that could hurt the dollar somewhat on the news. However, considering the bullish sentiment currently surrounding the currency amid hawkish signals from key FOMC officials, we expect any negative reaction from the trade data to remain short-lived.
• We also get Canada’s trade data for January, as well as the nation’s Ivey PMI for February. The trade surplus is expected to have narrowed, albeit slightly, while no forecast is available for the Ivey figure.
• Support: 1.3840 (S1), 1.3725 (S2), 1.3655 (S3) • Resistance: 1.3925 (R1), 1.4000 (R2), 1.4075 (R3)
• Support: 1.0570 (S1), 1.0500 (S2), 1.0450 (S3) • Resistance: 1.0630 (R1), 1.0675 (R2), 1.0715 (R3)
Daily Commentary • Yellen confirms a March rate hike, but the dollar drifts lower Speaking to the Executives’ Club of Chicago on Friday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen confirmed that the FOMC is likely to raise borrowing costs when it meets next week. Yellen was particularly hawkish, indicating that if at the upcoming meeting the Committee judges that employment and inflation continue to evolve in line with the Fed’s expectations, then an increase in the Federal funds rate would likely be appropriate. Coming on top of similarly optimistic comments from many of her colleagues recently, the Chair’s comments boosted the probability for a March rate hike even further to reach 80%, according to the Fed funds futures. Fed Vice Chair Fischer, who also spoke on Friday, left hints that he may vote for a March hike too. He said that the recent commentary from many FOMC officials is correct, and that he strongly supports it. Nevertheless, despite these hawkish signals from the Fed’s top two policymakers, the dollar drifted lower following their speeches. We think that this may have been a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” reaction, as investors who had already entered USD-long positions on the hawkish chorus from other FOMC members, locked in profits on Yellen’s confirmation. EUR/USD traded higher, breaking above the resistance (now turned into support) barrier of 1.0570 (S1) to stop fractionally below the 1.0630 (R1) hurdle, defined by the peaks of the 27th and 28th of February. In our view, bearing that the pair oscillates between that zone and the key support of 1.0500 (S2) since the 17th of February, the short-term path is sideways. As such, given the rate’s proximity to the upper bound of the range, we see the case for the bears to jump in and drive the action lower, perhaps to test the 1.0570 (S1) level as a support this time. A clear dip below that obstacle could open the way for another test near the key psychological zone of 1.0500 (S2).
• Back to the Fed, in our latest reports we indicated that in order for us to reassess our view for the next rate hike to come in June, we would like to see hawkish hints from Yellen and Fischer, as well as a strong employment report for February. Given the undeniably hawkish signals from the two top officials, we switch our view and now consider the March meeting as the most likely candidate for action. However, we would also like to see February’s jobs data, due out on Friday, before we assume that March is a done deal. At this stage, we think that a serious disappointment in the report, particularly in average hourly earnings, is needed to stop the Fed from hiking when it meets next.
• In our view, the main reason the FOMC wants to hike in March is not due to strong underlying fundamentals, as the economic outlook has not changed so dramatically from the February meeting, when the Committee appeared hesitant. Instead, the fact that global markets are calm at the moment allows the Fed to proceed without rocking the boat, something hinted by Fed Board Governor Brainard last week. She noted that global “constraints” of the past two years caused by problems from Europe to China are finally easing.
• With regards to the dollar, despite the correction lower after Yellen’s comments, we expect the currency to come back under buying interest in the coming days. This is not only due to the prospect of a March rate hike, as that scenario is largely priced in already. We believe that the main factor for USD to outperform may be expectations for faster rate hikes. Yellen suggested that the process of scaling back accommodation in the future will probably not be as slow as it was in 2015 and 2016. We should also bear in mind that in December, only some FOMC members included expectations for greater fiscal policy in the forecasts for the rate path. This suggests that as uncertainty around fiscal policy dissipates, we could see the “dot plot” being revised higher at one of the upcoming meetings, perhaps as early as in March.
• RBA policy meeting in focus During the Asian morning Tuesday, the RBA will announce its rate decision. The forecast is for the Bank to remain on hold, a view we share following strong hints from Governor Lowe recently that the bar for any further easing is high. The Bank has maintained a neutral bias in all of its recent communications, and in its latest policy statement, it even disregarded the softness in Australian data as being transitory. Considering that economic data have been mixed since that gathering, we do not expect the Bank to change its neutral tone. We believe that the Aussie will react positively to another neutral statement, especially after Lowe recently noted that it’s hard to say that the currency is overvalued. However, we would treat any positive reaction in AUD/USD as providing renewed selling opportunities. The latest dollar rally brought the pair below the key support (now turned into resistance) obstacle of 0.7600 (R1), a move that signaled a short-term trend reversal, in our view. We expect sellers to take the reins again soon and aim for 0.7550 (S1), where a dip is possible to set the stage for the 0.7500 (S2) psychological area.
• Today’s highlights: During the European day, the economic calendar is empty, with no major events or indicators due to be released.
• From the US, we get factory orders for January, which are expected to have slowed somewhat.
• We have only one speaker scheduled for today: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari.
• As for the rest of the week, on Tuesday the Reserve Bank of Australia decision will be in focus, as we outlined above.
• On Wednesday, we get China’s trade data for February. In the US, the ADP employment report for February is expected to show that the private sector have added 180k jobs.
• On Thursday, the highlight of the day will be the ECB policy decision, followed by a press conference from President Draghi. The forecast is for the Bank to stand pat. We expect President Draghi to maintain a dovish tone, amid non-accelerating underlying inflationary pressures. From China, we get inflation data for February.
• On Friday, the US employment report for February will take center stage. Expectations are for a solid report overall, which may seal the deal with regards to March rate hike by the Fed. We also get Canada’s employment data for February, and Norway’s CPI figures for the same month.
• Support: 1.0570 (S1), 1.0500 (S2), 1.0450 (S3) • Resistance: 1.0630 (R1), 1.0675 (R2), 1.0715 (R3)
• Support: 0.7550 (S1), 0.7500 (S2), 0.7450 (S3) • Resistance: 0.7600 (R1), 0.7640 (R2), 0.7690 (R3)
Week ahead • ECB & RBA policy meetings, US employment report, other key data in focus.
• In Eurozone, we expect the ECB to remain on hold and maintain its dovish bias amid non-accelerating underlying inflationary pressures.
• The Reserve Bank of Australia is forecast to stand pat as well. We share this view, following recent comments from Governor Lowe and mixed economic data.
• In the US, the final employment report before the Fed’s March meeting is likely to add the finishing touch to market expectations regarding a hike at that gathering.
• We also get key economic data from China, the US, Canada, and Norway.
On Monday, we have a relatively light calendar, with no major events or indicators due to be released.
On Tuesday, during the Asian morning, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its rate decision. The forecast is for the Bank to remain on hold, a view we share following strong hints from Governor Lowe last week that the bar for any further easing is high. The Governor said that the officials are concerned with the high levels of household debt being a risk to financial stability, and that any more rate cuts could amplify that risk. In addition, the Bank has maintained a neutral bias in all of its recent communications, and in its latest policy statement, it even disregarded the softness in recent Australian data as being transitory. Considering that economic data have been mixed since that gathering, with GDP growth rebounding strongly in Q4 but the labor force participation rate falling in January, we do not expect the Bank to change its neutral tone. The fact that iron ore prices have remained elevated in recent months and have risen even further since the latest gathering, supports our view as well.
On Wednesday, during the Asian morning, we get China’s trade data for February. The forecast is for the nation’s trade surplus to have narrowed significantly, possibly because imports are expected to have risen much faster than exports in yearly terms. The case for further progress in exports is supported by the nation’s Caixin manufacturing PMI for the month, which indicated the fastest increase in new export business since September 2014. A significant acceleration in imports is supported by the yuan’s recovery since January, as it may have increased the purchasing power of Chinese consumers.
In the US, the ADP employment report for February is due out. The private sector is expected to have added 180k jobs, less than the robust 246k in January, but still a solid number that could raise speculation for the NFP figure to meet its forecast of 180k as well. What’s more, we think that following the new administration’s freeze on public sector hiring in late January, we are likely to see the ADP print coming in closer to the NFP number moving forward, considering the NFP figure will now include far fewer public employees, which are not measured in the ADP report.
On Thursday, the highlight of the day will be the ECB policy decision, followed by a press conference from President Draghi. The Bank was surprisingly dovish at the latest meeting, in our view. Although the bloc’s headline inflation rate for December surged to a level last seen in 2013, President Draghi downplayed the importance of that improvement. He pointed out that he sees no convincing upward trend in underlying inflation, and that the latest progress in the CPI is mainly due to energy-related effects. He implied that until there is material progress in the core CPI rate, the Bank is likely to keep its policy stance unchanged. Considering that February’s CPI data showed more of the same, i. e. a rising headline rate but a flat core rate, we doubt that the Governing Council will shift away from its dovish bias at this meeting. As such, we think that this meeting may be a repetition of the previous one. Like last time, President Draghi may try to balance the recent progress in forward-looking indicators such as the PMIs, with the fact that underlying inflationary pressures have not begun to pick up yet.
Earlier in the day, during the Asian morning, China’s inflation data for February are due out. In the absence of any forecast, we expect both the CPI and the PPI rates to have remained more or less unchanged, with risks skewed to the upside. We base our view on the February Caixin manufacturing PMI survey, which showed that the rate of input price inflation remained sharp, prompting firms to raise their final-product prices. Both the CPI and the PPI rates rose sharply in recent months, which was undoubtedly a pleasant development for the PBoC. The Bank has been tightening its policy in past weeks following the US election results, in order to halt some of the depreciation pressure on the yuan. As such, we think that further acceleration in inflation gives the Bank even more room to continue tightening its policy in the foreseeable future, if deemed necessary. What’s more, the steady surge in the PPI rate from well-within the negative territory to +6.9% yoy in January is likely to be also welcomed by foreign central banks facing weak underlying inflationary pressures, such as the ECB and BoJ. Considering that falling Chinese producer prices between 2012 and 2016 may have held down imported inflation in the Eurozone and Japan, the turnaround in that dynamic may actually support the inflation prints of those nations.
On Friday, the US employment report will take center stage. Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to have risen by 180k, less than the 227k in January, but still a solid number that is consistent with further tightening in the labor market. The unemployment rate is expected to have ticked down, while average hourly earnings are forecast to have accelerated on both a monthly and a yearly basis. This would be a sign that the softness in January’s earnings was just an outlier and may amplify even further speculation regarding a March rate hike by the Fed. As things currently stand, our view is still that June is a more likely candidate for a hike than March, despite the recent string of optimistic comments by various Fed officials that the case for a near-term rate increase has strengthened. We think that the greater than 50% probability for a March hike is overly optimistic, mainly because there has not been a phenomenal change in the economic outlook following the February meeting to justify such a shift in Fed rhetoric. Let’s not forget that the minutes of that meeting showed many officials held a cautious stance, judging that the Fed would have “ample time” to respond if inflation emerged. At the time of writing, Yellen and Fischer are yet to speak. In order to reassess our non-consensus view, we would like to see hawkish signals from both Yellen and Fischer, as well as a rebound in the average hourly earnings rate of this employment report.
We also get Canada’s employment data for February, though no forecast is available yet. Our own view is that the labor market probably tightened further during the month. We base our expectations on the nation’s Markit manufacturing PMI for the month, which showed that greater business confidence contributed to the strongest increase in employment for 27 months. Even though this is likely to be a pleasant development for the BoC, we doubt that it will lead to a significant change in the Bank’s cautious tone. At its policy meeting on Wednesday, the BoC signaled that it is worried about a strengthening Loonie muting the outlook for exports. As such, although economic data are improving on the whole and oil prices remain elevated, we think that the BoC is likely to maintain its somewhat cautious tone in the foreseeable future, as it prefers to prevent CAD from strengthening too much.
From Norway, we get CPI figures for February. In January, both the headline and the core rates declined by much more than expected, though the headline rate still remained above the Norges Bank target of 2.5%. At its latest policy gathering, the Bank maintained a neutral tone overall. The officials noted that although there are prospects for inflation to be lower than projected, any potential easing to offset that would likely boost further the already-elevated housing prices, thereby amplifying financial stability risks. This suggests that the bar for easing is quite high, making us conclude that the Bank may be tolerant for some more slowdown in inflation before it turns its sight on the easing button.
Daily Commentary • Fed’s Powell adds to the hawkish chorus; Yellen & Fischer in focus Today, investors will lock their gaze on the US for two speeches by the Fed’s top policymakers, Chair Janet Yellen and Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer. This will be the last time we hear from these officials ahead of the March meeting and as such, their remarks will be closely scrutinized for any hints on whether a March hike is as likely as market pricing currently suggests. The probability for a hike at this meeting skyrocketed this week, boosted by hawkish comments from various influential FOMC officials. The latest of these remarks came overnight, from Fed Board Governor Powell, who stated explicitly that a March rate hike will be on the table when policymakers meet. If Yellen’s and Fischer’s comments are equally optimistic as those of their colleagues, we could see that probability increase further, something that could add more fuel to the latest dollar rally, at least ahead of next week’s employment report. EUR/USD slid yesterday and hit the key support territory of 1.0500 (S1) before rebounding somewhat. In our view, investors are likely to settle near that zone and wait for Yellen and Fisher. If these two elite policymakers sound hawkish as well, then we may see a dip below 1.0500 (S1), which could open the way for our next support barrier of 1.0450 (S2), defined by the low of the 11th of January.
• On the other hand, a more moderate tone from these key officials, could suggest that the FOMC can be patient for now and pour cold water on the idea of a March action. Something like that could lead to notable downside correction in USD. In this case, EUR/USD could rebound further from near the 1.0500 (S1) hurdle and could initially aim for the resistance of 1.0570 (R1). A possible break above that territory is likely to set the stage for more upside extensions, perhaps towards the 1.0630 (R2) area, marked by the peaks of the 27th and 28th of February.
• On balance, we view the risks surrounding today’s reaction in the dollar as asymmetric and as being tilted to the downside. We believe there is likely to be a bigger negative reaction in case the two officials express more moderate comments, rather than the corresponding positive reaction in case of hawkish ones. The March rate hike probability already rests at 77% according to the Fed funds futures, implying that this is the market’s base case scenario, and comments hinting anything different than that will come as a surprise.
• Having outlined the scenarios, we maintain our view that June is still a more likely candidate than March for the next rate hike. We think that the greater than 50% probability for a March hike is overly optimistic, mainly because there has not been a phenomenal change in the economic outlook in the aftermath of the February meeting to justify such a shift in Fed rhetoric. Let’s not forget that the minutes of that meeting showed many officials held a cautious stance, judging that the Fed would have “ample time” to respond if inflation emerged. Since then, wage growth slowed in January, while the core PCE price index for the same month failed to accelerate for the third consecutive time, generating doubts as to whether underlying inflationary pressures have really begun to pick up. What’s more, there is still elevated uncertainty around the direction of fiscal policy. Bearing all these in mind, a strong case can be made for the Committee to remain patient, at least for now. In order to reassess this view, we would like to see hawkish signals from both Yellen and Fischer, as well as a rebound in the average hourly earnings rate for February, next week.
• As for the rest of today’s highlights: During the European day, we get the final services PMIs for February from the European nations that we got the manufacturing data on Wednesday, and the Eurozone as a whole. All the final indices are expected to confirm their preliminary estimates and as such, the reaction in EUR may be limited. We also retail sales for January from both Germany and the Eurozone.
• From Sweden, we get industrial production data for January and the forecast is for a rebound, something that may support SEK somewhat. Norway’s unemployment rate for February is also due out.
• In the UK, the services PMI for February is due to be released. The forecast is for the index to have declined somewhat. A modest decline could signal that growth in the UK’s largest sector is slowing down and may thereby hurt the pound somewhat. GBP/JPY edged south yesterday after it hit resistance at 140.70 (R1) and the prior upside support line taken from the low of the 16th of January. This combined with the fact that the rate remains below the downside resistance line drawn from the peak of the 15th of December keep the short-term outlook somewhat negative. A disappointment in the services PMI today could push the rate below the 139.70 (S1) support, something that could pave the way for our next obstacle of 138.80 (S2), marked by the low of the 28th of February.
• We believe that the most closely watched aspect of the report will be how fast inflationary pressures are mounting, as investors try to gauge whether or not the BoE is likely to tighten its policy in the foreseeable future. Following comments from BoE policymakers last week, such a scenario appears rather unlikely. Even Ian McCafferty, a notorious hawk among the Committee, signaled that there is “some hope” that interest rates could start to normalize in two or three years. Even though that depends on how inflation evolves over the coming months, the fact that presently there seems to be very little appetite for rate hikes even by the most hawkish MPC members is important in our view.
• With regards to US economic data, we get the ISM non-manufacturing PMI for February. The forecast is for the index to have remained unchanged at a relatively elevated level. However, the greenback’s near-term direction is likely to be dictated by Yellen’s and Fischer’s comments, later during the day.
• Besides Chair Yellen and Vice Chairman Fischer, we have one more Fed speaker on today’s schedule: Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan.
• Support: 1.0500 (S1), 1.0450 (S2), 1.0390 (S3)
• Resistance: 1.0570 (R1), 1.0630 (R2), 1.0675 (R3)
• Support: 139.70 (S1), 138.80 (S2), 137.90 (S3)
• Resistance: 140.70 (R1), 142.00 (R2), 142.80 (R3)
Daily Commentary • Fed Board Governor Brainard adds to the drumbeat of approaching hikes Overnight, Fed Governor Lael Brainard added another touch to the positive picture painted by other Fed policymakers on Tuesday, who hinted that a March rate hike may be on the way. In her speech, Brainard said that a rate hike will likely be appropriate soon given improved global conditions and continued growth. She noted that “constraints” of the past two years, caused by problems from Europe to China are easing. With regards to the domestic economy, she noted that the Fed’s employment and inflation goals are nearly met, allowing a continued gradual pace of rate increases. Given that Brainard is a Governor, which implies a permanent vote within the Committee, her comments were taken seriously by the market, which is now pricing in a much higher probability for a March hike than yesterday. According to our model which is based on the yields of the Fed funds futures, that probability has risen to 50% from 36%. Despite the recent fuss around the next hike in the Fed funds rate, and the continued increase of the probability for that to happen in March, we still believe that the recent sentiment around that prospect is more optimistic than it should be. We stick to our call that June is a more likely candidate. Despite getting positive vibes from key voting members, we still believe that the overall voting squad within the Committee has turned more dovish this year. After all, this was evident by the latest FOMC meeting minutes. What’s more, yesterday’s release of the core PCE index, which is the Fed’s favorite inflation measure, showed that the rate remained unchanged instead of rising as many had expected. The spotlight now turns to Fed Chair Yellen and Vice Chair Fisher, who are both scheduled to speak on Friday. In order to reevaluate our view, we need to see the two leading Fed officials unleashing equally hawkish signals to those of their colleagues, as well as a strong employment report next week, especially as far as the earnings are concerned.
• EUR/USD traded lower during the European morning yesterday, but rebounded later in the afternoon to hit the resistance of 1.0570 (R1). Subsequently, it came back under renewed selling interest and continued lower after Brainard’s remarks. Now the pair looks to be headed for another test near the 1.0500 (S1) territory, where we expect investors to settle and wait for Yellen’s and Fisher’s speeches. If the two top Fed officials share the view that a near-term rate hike has become increasingly likely, then we may see a dip below the aforementioned key support obstacle, something that could open the way for our next support of 1.0450 (S2). With regards to the bigger picture, we still see a longer-term downtrend. Positive vibes from more FOMC members and a potential strong US employment report next week combined with the political uncertainty surrounding the Euro-area could encourage the bears to stay in the driver’s seat. This could eventually lead to another test near the 1.0360 territory, defined by the lows of December and January.
• BoC remains on hold amid “significant uncertainties” The Bank of Canada kept its policy unchanged yesterday, as was widely anticipated. The statement accompanying the decision was upbeat on some aspects of the domestic economy. However, it also warned that exports continue to face competitiveness challenges. With regards to the Loonie, the Bank said that both CAD and bond yields have remained at levels similar to the latest meeting, implying that they are still undesirably high. All these echo comments from the previous policy meeting that the strength of the Canadian dollar is muting the outlook for exports. The Bank ended the statement by noting it will remain attentive to the impact of significant uncertainties weighing on the outlook, and that it will continue to monitor the risks. Given the somewhat worried tone, the reaction in the Loonie was negative.
• USD/CAD surged after it hit support near the 1.3300 (S2) territory, to break above the resistance (now turned into support) level of 1.3340 (S1) and the longer-term uptrend line taken from the lows of May 2016. Given the recent optimistic signals from the Fed with regards to the next hike, as well as this cautious tone from the BoC, we believe that the pair could continue higher in the days to come. A clear break above 1.3390 (R1) could pave the way for the 1.3460 (R2) area. As for the broader trend in USD/CAD, as long as the pair remains within the sideways range that has contained the price action since September 2016, between 1.3000 and 1.3600, we consider the overall outlook to be neutral. A clear break above 1.3600 is needed to turn the broader path to the upside as well.
• Back to the BoC, we believe that a large part of the uncertainty the Bank sees weighing on the domestic outlook relates to the appreciation of the Canadian dollar late last year. Although we do not expect this appreciation to actually lead to a rate cut, we believe that it could keep the tone of the BoC somewhat dovish in the foreseeable future, as they prefer to keep CAD from strengthening too much.
• Today’s highlights: During the European day, we get Eurozone’s preliminary CPI data for February. The forecast is for the headline rate to have risen further, while the core rate is expected to have remained unchanged for the third consecutive month. ECB President Draghi placed a lot of emphasis on Eurozone’s core CPI at the latest policy gathering. He said that although the headline rate has risen recently, that reflects primarily transitory effects. He made it clear that until there are convincing signs of an upward trend in core inflation, the Bank is likely to keep its policy stance unchanged. Therefore, we believe that even though further upturn in the headline CPI rate could support the euro somewhat, if the core rate remains unchanged as expected, any positive reaction in the currency is likely to be only modest. We also get the bloc’s unemployment rate and the PPI, both for January. • From the UK, we get the construction PMI for February and expectations are for the index to have held steady from the previous month. We see the risks surrounding that forecast as skewed to the downside, considering the somewhat disappointing manufacturing print for the month. In case of a decline, GBP could come under renewed selling interest.
• In the US, initial jobless claims for the week ended February 24th are due out.
• From Canada, we get GDP data for Q4. In the absence of a forecast, we see the case for GDP growth to have accelerated from the previous quarter, in line with the BoC view at yesterday’s meeting. Accelerating GDP growth could cause the CAD to recover some of its losses from yesterday, but bearing the Bank’s discontent with regards to a strong domestic currency, we expect such a reaction to remain short-lived.
• We have only one speaker scheduled for today: Fed Board Governor Jerome Powell. Considering that he is also a permanent voting member, investors are likely to scan his speech for any additional signals on a March hike.
• Support: 1.0500 (S1), 1.0450 (S2), 1.0390 (S3) • Resistance: 1.0570 (R1), 1.0630 (R2), 1.0675 (R3)
• Support: 1.3340 (S1), 1.3300 (S2), 1.3220 (S3) • Resistance: 1.3390 (R1), 1.3460 (R2), 1.3500 (R3)
Risk Warning: Our products are traded on margin and carry a high level of risk and it is possible to lose all your capital. These products may not be suitable for everyone and you should ensure that you understand the risks involved.
Our services include products that are traded on margin and carry a risk of losing all your initial deposit. Before deciding on trading on margin products you should consider your investment objectives, risk tolerance and your level of experience on these products. Trading with high leverage level can either be against you or for you. Margin products may not be suitable for everyone and you should ensure that you understand the risks involved. You should be aware of all the risks associated in regards to products that are traded on margin and seek independent financial advice, if necessary. Please read IronFX’s Risk Disclosure statement. This website is owned and operated by the IronFX Group.
8Safe UK Limited is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA no. 585561)
GVS (AU) Pty Limited is authorized and regulated by ASIC (AFSL no. 417482)

Open a Demo Forex Account for Free.
Congratulations! You have successfully created your IronFX trading account.
Get the most out of your trading accounts by proceeding with the following simple steps and start trading with the best values in market.
Check your for your credentials.
Your user name, password and the platform download link has been sent to your .
Login to your account.
You may login to your account and from your dashboard you may monitor your accounts, manage your funds, claim bonuses and much more.
Validate your Account.
Submit your identification documents to gain unrestricted access to all trading features offered by IronFX.
High Risk Trading Warning: Our services include products that are traded on margin and carry a risk of losing all your initial deposit. Before deciding on trading on margin products you should consider your investment objectives, risk tolerance and your level of experience on these products. Trading with high leverage level can either be against you or for you. Margin products may not be suitable for everyone and you should ensure that you understand the risks involved. You should be aware of all the risks associated in regards to products that are traded on margin and seek independent financial advice, if necessary. Please read IronFXвЂ™s Risk Disclosure statement. This website is owned and operated by IronFX Group.
Licenses and Authorizations.
IronFX Global Limited is authorized and regulated by CySEC (Licence no. 125/10)
Group Licenses and Authorizations.
GVS (AU) Pty Ltd is authorized and regulated by ASIC (AFSL no. 417482) 8Safe UK Limited is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA no. 585561)
IronFX does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as USA, Iran, Cuba, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.

Binary option Trading +386

Поиск по этому блогу